GT’s Final Four Winning Picks

Want to be saying, I told you so, when One Shining Moment is playing on Monday night? Well, I wouldn’t place the family fortune on my picks at Vegas, but you could make some simple side-bets with friends and stand a pretty good chance of winning if you follow my lead here. Here’s what going to happen today.

The SemiFinals

Louisville and Kentucky

Skill set galore at Kentucky versus a bunch of grind it out kids from Louisville. Common sense says take the talent in Kentucky and figure on them finding a way to overcome the adrenaline and pure will to win from Louisville. But there’s a little more to think about here. John Calipari, Kentucky’s coach, is infamous for blowing it in the big game. Think back to his Memphis Tigers team with Derek Rose who pretty much handed the title over to Duke, I believe, in what I considered to be one of the biggest flops I’d ever seen on the court. Also, Rick Pitino, Louisville’s head coach, is pretty solid. But he even admits he’s just happy to be in the Final Four. Surprised even. he knows his kids overachieved. Can they do it again? No, in my opinion. Unless Calipari allows his team to flop again.

Kentucky 72/Louisville 58

In the other Final Four matchup (yes, remember, there is another game) it’s Ohio State versus Kansas. Kansas is another team with a history of the flop and, in addition, they were lucky to beat North Carolina to get into the Final Four in the first place. If NC had their top point guard in the lineup when Kansas faced off against them, NC would be playing in this game and they would be my choice to win it all. But Marshall didn’t play and Kansas sneaked by. They also sneaked by in an early tournament game when they should have lost. I give them this: they’ve persevered. Ohio State is tough. I like them a lot. And their big dude, Jared Sellinger, is a beast. He’s going to handle Kansas’ big man, Thomas Robinson, which many other teams could not do. But the key to this game is in the point guard department, specifically in the way that Ohio State’s brainy guard, Aaron Kraft, plays. I think he’s up to the task and will play super smart, shoot the three well, and press the Kansas guards into turnovers. He’s a great on the ball defender and a difference maker. He won’t let his team go down here.

Ohio State 56/Kansas 50

The Final

A great matchup here with Calipari’s talent up against Thad Motta’s team-oriented half-court offense. I think it’s going to be a treat to watch two great big men, Kentucky’s Anthony Davis and Ohio State’s Sellinger, face off in the final. This will be one key to the game, who plays better. If Sellinger gets in foul trouble the game is over. If he stays in the game and contributes throughout, we could be looking at one of the classics that we saw through the 1980s and 1990s. Another key to the game is whether Ohio State can stop Michael Kidd-Gilcrest, a solid scorer and do-all for Kentucky. If they manage that somehow, and Sellinger and Kraft play well, it’s anyone’s game. But that’s a lot of astricks  going into a game. The talent wins out, even though I’d like to see the underdog, Ohio State, win.

Kentucky 68/Ohio State 60

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